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Auf welcher Seite der Schaden größer sein wird, ist reine Spekulation. Fest steht: Ein Austritt Großbritanniens aus der Europäischen Union hätte schwerwiegende Folgen für den Zusammenhalt Europas.

Doch fangen wir von vorne an: Die Drohung eines Brexit (Britain exit), also eines Austritts Großbritanniens aus der Europäischen Union, ist keine neue. Schon vor einigen Jahren hatte der britische Premierminister David Cameron versprochen, bei einem Wahlsieg seiner Partei, der „Conservative Party“, 2015 würde es ein Referendum, also eine Abstimmung, über den Verbleib in der EU geben.

Die Hintergründe sind vielschichtig, aber als Hauptgründe gelten wohl die immer stärkere EU-feindliche Partei UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party) und die lauter werdenden EU-kritischen Stimmen in der eigenen Partei Camerons.

Sein Ziel war es daher, die EU mit dem Referendum unter Druck zu setzen und Reformen – nach britischen Vorstellungen – durchzusetzen, um die Kritiker zufrieden zu stellen und sich weiterhin ihre Unterstützung zu sichern. Der erste Schritt ist ihm gelungen, nach zähen Verhandlungen in Brüssel steht ein Reformpaket für die Briten, welches beispielsweise beinhaltet, dass es volle Sozialleistungen für EU-Zuwanderer erst nach vier Jahren gibt. Nach diesem Erfolg wirbt Cameron nun bei der britischen Bevölkerung für einen Verbleib in der EU.

Großbritannien würde an Bedeutung verlieren

Würde es bei der Abstimmung – voraussichtlich am 23

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. Juni 2016 – jedoch anders kommen und die Briten sich gegen eine weitere EU-Mitgliedschaft entscheiden, wären die tatsächlichen Folgen dessen nur Mutmaßungen.

Mit einem Austritt würden die vier Grundfreiheiten des europäischen Binnenmarktes, freier Güter-, Dienstleistungs-, Kapital- und Personenverkehr, für Großbritannien automatisch nicht mehr gelten. Das bedeutet, die Im- und Exporte des Landes müssten durch ganz neue Verträge geregelt und mit jedem einzelnen Land ausverhandelt werden

EU-Kritiker sehen durch den Brexit einen wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung ihres Landes vorher, laut aktuellen Studien käme es jedoch nur zu einem Wachstum, wenn schnelle weitreichende Reformen auf den Weg gebracht würden, was realpolitisch aber eher unwahrscheinlich ist.

Wahrscheinlich ist jedoch, dass der Finanzplatz London massiv davon betroffen sein könnte und an Bedeutung verliert, da die Banken, bevor sie vom europäischen Markt abgeschnitten wären, lieber wegziehen. Möglicher Gewinner davon könnte Frankfurt sein.

Großbritannien und Europäische Union brauchen einander

Sicher ist: Der Zusammenhalt Europas würde in einer Zeit, in der es an Solidarität mangelt und Mitgliedstaaten weit davon entfernt sind, gemeinsam gefasste Beschlüsse umzusetzen, weiter geschwächt.

Mit einem Austritt würde die EU mit einem Schlag 13 Prozent ihrer EinwohnerInnen und 17 Prozent ihrer Wirtschaftskraft verlieren. Dies hätte zur Folge, dass das internationale Gewicht Europas schrumpfen und es immer schwieriger werden würde, mit „Big Playern“, wie USA, Russland oder China zu verhandeln.

Außerdem darf nicht vergessen werden, dass der Handel mit Großbritannien, abhängig von den jeweiligen neuen Verträgen, um einiges erschwert und teurer werden könnte.

Im Moment pokern beide Parteien um eine Mehrheit, welche Entscheidung das Volk schlussendlich trifft, wird vermutlich noch von vielen Faktoren bis Mitte Juni abhängen.

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